What I Learned In 2023
Reflections on AI's biggest year yet
At the end of every year, I write up the major lessons of the past year and send it to the Scale AI team. This year, given the degree to which AI has become a global topic, I wanted to share it broadly.
The conceit of an expert is a trap. Strive for a beginner’s mind and the energy of a novice.
Experience can often be a curse—the past is only mildly predictive of the future, and every scenario requires new techniques and insight. In novel situations, the novice tends to be at an advantage—their vitality and beginner’s mind lend themselves to faster adaptation.
Winning requires an incredible level of discomfort. It’s not for the faint of heart.
Every athlete knows this. Winning comfortably is an oxymoron. Build pain tolerance if you want to win.
Focus is the only strategy in a power law regime.
Power laws dictate that there’s always one outlier that will trump everything else in importance. If that’s true about what you’re working on, then 80% of the battle is finding the right thing to focus on.
Advice tends to be 90% wrong and 10% right.
Most advice is horribly wrong. But there are always nuggets of truth which can be extremely helpful. The key to advice is to find the nuggets.
Be prolific. No great person was lazy.
Every great human throughout history was incredibly prolific. They were constantly producing, practicing, and perfecting. You will be no different—get building.
Startups innovate by idea recombination and evolutionary pressure. They win by being fast. Big companies must innovate through a clear and executable mission. They win by being right.
In the AI startup big bang of 2023, virtually every AI idea is being tried. This Darwinian process will result in a few big winners. Big companies do not have the luxury of nimbleness. The big company winners of 2023 are executing against plans laid years ago (long before the AI hype cycle!)—they are the ones who most successfully predicted the future.
Momentum trumps manpower.
The story of AI in 2023—small teams with momentum punched far above their weight. Momentum is a strong force—harness it and you’ll be unstoppable.
Paranoia is an adaptive trait.
Your therapist might tell you it’s unhealthy to be anxious. But, as per Andy Grove, only the paranoid survive.
When the future is being built, small decisions have monumental impact.
In 2030, we will look back at many of the major touchstones of how AI has affected humanity and realize that they were each determined by decisions that seemed small and insignificant in 2023. The future will amplify every decision we make today—we must act wisely.
Fight for exceptional people. Every exceptional person is the product of unique circumstance, and they deserve to be fought for.
Exceptional people working together is the closest thing we have to a philosopher’s stone. Great teams are akin to true alchemy—creating something from nothing. Fight for them. It’s always worth it.
The future is defined more by opportunism than by planfulness.
Opportunism has driven every major AI change. Every week there is another move made by a startup, government, or big company to gain ground in the arena. Every move—regulation, de-regulation, open-sourcing, closed-sourcing, etc.—is a tactic in the larger AI chess game.
Everything interesting is only apparent in the finest of details. You have to be deep in the weeds to recognize the extraordinary.
The world will train you to not study things too deeply; it seemingly rewards breadth over depth. The exact opposite is true—extraordinary discoveries come from extreme depth and a curious, borderline obsessive, analysis of fine details.
Focus on compounding activities. Avoid perishable pursuits.
Humans often compete over perishable rewards (status, fame, etc.) versus compounding ones (technology, teams, etc.). If you avoid this mistake, you will be unstoppable in 5+ years.
Find your superpowers and never let go of them—they will carry you your whole life.
We often fall into the trap of shoring up our weaknesses rather than doubling down on our strengths. If your story for how you win does not involve your superpowers, then it is likely wrong. We win through strength, not lack of weakness.
Mirage opportunities always feel just out of reach. Real opportunities slap you in the face.
Pure theory has led many brilliant minds astray in search of opportunity. In practice, identifying a real opportunity will feel like grabbing a tiger by its tail. It will pull you violently and quickly.
The search for new miracles is an insatiable human desire.
Despite all of the potential concern surrounding the advancement of AI and other breakthrough technologies, progress rages ahead. Humanity will always pursue miracles, and we are at the start of a golden age.
If you want to work in an environment where you will learn this much in 2024, please consider joining our team. I can promise that 2024 will be even crazier than 2023.